LCQ20: Land requirement and supply

Following is a question by the Dr Hon Fernando Cheung and a written reply by the Secretary for Development, Mr Michael Wong, in the Legislative Council today (February 28):
 
Question:
 
In October 2016, the Planning Department published a topical report entitled "Consolidated Land Requirement and Supply Analysis" (the Report), which projected that "from now to long term", there would be a supply of 202, 1 440 and 1 872 hectares (ha) of lands respectively for (i) economic uses, (ii) housing sites and (iii) uses as Government, Institution and Community sites, open space and transportation facilities. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:
 
(1) given that the Report has classified the lands to be supplied for economic uses into two groups, namely "Market-driven" (121 ha) and "Others", and further classified the former into three items, namely (i) "Central Business District Grade A Offices" (18 ha), (ii) "Industries" (-17 ha) and (iii) "Special Industries" (120 ha), and the latter as a single item of (iv) "Industrial" (81 ha), of a breakdown of these four items by source of land as set out in Table 1;

Table 1

(2) of (i) the respective areas of land used for developing public and private housing among, and (ii) the respective numbers of public and private housing units that may be provided by, the lands to be supplied for housing site, and provide breakdowns of such figures by source of land as set out in Table 2;

Table 2

(3) given that the facilities to be provided on the aforesaid 1 872 ha of lands may be classified into two categories, namely (i) "Major special facilities" and (ii) "Population-related facilities", set out, by name of development project and in Table 3, the current situation (i.e. committed/planned/under advance planning) of the projects and the respective areas which will be occupied by these two categories of facilities;

Table 3


(4) as it is projected in the Report that within 30 years from 2016, the demand for housing units arising from redevelopment projects would be about 318 400 units, of the respective numbers of public and private housing units that may be provided upon completion of the redevelopment projects concerned; and
 
(5) as the Report estimated that the number of housing units to be provided upon completion of the redevelopment projects concerned would be less than that before redevelopment, of the ratio of these two numbers and how that ratio was arrived at?

Reply:
 
President,
 
"Hong Kong 2030+: Towards a Planning Vision and Strategy Transcending 2030" (Hong Kong 2030+) serves to update the territorial development strategy. In the study process of Hong Kong 2030+, the Planning Department (PlanD) has made broad-brush assessment on the long-term land and space requirement for various housing, economic activities, "Government, Institution and Community" (G/IC) facilities and transport needs. In this regard, apart from making reference to "Long Term Housing Strategy" and the provision targets and guidelines for various facilities under the "Hong Kong Planning Standards and Guidelines" as well as consulting relevant bureaux and departments, PlanD has also carried out a consultancy study on "Review of Land Requirement for Grade A Offices, Business and Industrial Uses". The aforementioned analyses of land supply and demand, including the methodologies in estimating and assessing the land supply and demand, have been set out in the topical paper on "Consolidated Land Requirements and Supply Analysis" (www.hk2030plus.hk/document/Consolidated%20Land%20Requirement%20and%20Supply%20Analysis_Eng.pdf) (Topical Paper).
 
According to the broad-brush projection under "Hong Kong 2030+", it is estimated that the total additional land requirement for different uses in the long term will be no less than 4 800 hectares (ha). Taking into account the land supply from the committed, planned and under advance planning development projects (including redevelopment projects), about 3 600 ha of land can be provided. Hong Kong in the long term is thus short of at least 1 200 ha of land. It is worth to note that, as a strategic study, the land uses covered by the Hong Kong 2030+ analyses are not exhaustive, and such macro study is unable to make detailed estimation or analysis for individual projects. The relevant data can only reflect, at the time when the estimation was made (i.e. 2015-16), the various major land supply items and their respective expected land use in a broad-brush manner. For certain projects which are still undergoing studies, their project details (including development parameters, number of flats, housing types and completion year) are subject to adjustments as the projects are taken forward. On the other hand, details of ongoing projects are subject to changes arising from statutory and other procedures (such as feasibility/technical studies, consultation, rezoning, detailed design, works funding, land resumption, compensation, rehousing, etc.) and project progress.
 
My reply to various parts of the question is as follows:
 
(1), (2) and (3) The projected land supply for economic uses under Hong Kong 2030+ stands at about 202 ha. Of these, the land supply for market-led economic uses is projected to be 121 ha, mainly including 18 ha for Grade A offices in Central Business Districts, 120 ha for special industries and the 17 ha of negative supply expected for industrial land. The land supply for other economic uses is about 81 ha, mainly including land for port back-up facilities and industrial estates. Details have been set out in Chapter 1 of the Topical Paper.

Regarding sources of the 1 440 ha projected housing land supply, it includes various known short-to-medium term land supply items (such as the some 210 housing sites identified under the land use review, former quarry sites, Kai Tak Development Area, and railway property development projects), medium-to-long term land supply items (such as the various New Development Areas and New Town Extension projects, and potential railway development projects), as well as other known or anticipated private development and redevelopment projects (mainly items with approved building plans and/or planning permissions). The major relevant sites are expected to provide over 600 000 residential flats, while the target for the ratio of overall public-private housing supply remains at 60:40 as set out in the Long Term Housing Strategy. As mentioned above, details of individual projects (including quantity and housing type) are subject to change as the project progresses.

As for the estimated 1 872 ha land supply for G/IC, Open Space and transport facilities, 852 ha of which is for population-related facilities, while the remaining 1 020 ha is mainly land for special government facilities which have been committed/planned/under advance planning, as required by individual policy bureau/departments. Details are set out in Chapter 3 of the Topical Paper.

Details of the above land supply for economic activities, housing and expected land supply for G/IC, Open Space and transport facilities are set out at Annex 1 and Annex 2.
 
(4) and (5) The projection of the overall housing demand from 2016 to 2046 at about 1 million flats under Hong Kong 2030+ has made reference to the methodology of the Long Term Housing Strategy, which includes 318 400 flats required for households displaced by redevelopment. For the first 10 years (i.e. 2016-2026), Hong Kong 2030+ has directly adopted the supply target in the “Long Term Housing Strategy Annual Progress Report 2015”, including 45 400 flats required by households displaced by redevelopment.  For the next 20 years (i.e. 2026-2046), the projection methodology is broadly similar to that for the first 10 years. As regards the 273 000 flats required by households displaced by redevelopment therein, we assume that the redevelopment scale for public housing for each of the following 10 years is similar to that for the first 10 years. As for private housing, the assumption on number of private housing flats to be demolished and redeveloped is derived from the demolition rates of private housing stock by age cohorts over the past five years from 2010 to 2014 and applying similar rates to the future private building stock. With strategic planning considerations in mind, we expect that the long term built-back ratio for some redeveloped private residential buildings would be lower than the existing level, but the actual data is subject to the actual circumstances of individual redevelopment projects. Details are set out in Chapter 2 of the Topical Paper.

Ends/Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Issued at HKT 15:00

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