Over the past few months, the SAR Government has been working hard to increase land supply for housing, which I have mentioned many times in “My Blog”. We hope that in considering our proposed measures, the community will take a holistic view and make hard choices so that we can work together to tackle the shortage of land and build up a land reserve.
While we have endeavoured to search for land, some groups oppose the Government’s proposals to increase land supply, including reclamation outside Victoria Harbour. They present various reasons and statistics and are sceptical of the pressing need for land, disregarding the overall situation and the actual needs of the community. One of their opposing reasons is that population growth in future will be slower than the original projection, and consequently the amount of land needed is less than we think. Furthermore, they consider that we should wait until all the studies and statistics under review have been completed before considering proposals to increase land supply.
First of all, I agree on the need to review the population policy and the Chief Secretary for Administration is now chairing the Steering Committee on Population Policy. However, I have to point out that population projections, which are subject to adjustment in the light of social and economic changes, can never be perfectly accurate. Even though there may be deviations in the projections, the overall trend is still on the rise. In particular, we have to increase our youth population when facing an ageing population. Moreover, our experience has already told us that the community’s demand of for land will only increase rather than decrease if we want to improve the quality of life, including providing more community facilities, enhancing transport networks and developing our economy. The shortage of land is severe and we should not remain hesitant.
According to the Census and Statistics Department, the period from the 1970s to the 1990s was a time of peak population growth in Hong Kong. Although the growth slowed down from 1990 to 2000, there was still a population increase of 500 000 per decade on average. According to the population projections announced in 2012, Hong Kong’s population will grow by almost 1.37 million in the coming 30 years, representing a growth of some four hundred thousand per decade on average, which is almost equal to the population of Sha Tin New Town (excluding Ma On Shan). To cope with this future growth, we have to make land available with an area similar to that of Sha Tin New Town each decade. The total development area of Sha Tin New Town is more than 2 700 hectares. If we look at our map, where can we find sites with a similar size in the next ten, twenty and thirty years? In fact, according to the Planning Department, the total area of developed land in Hong Kong increased by more than 80 per cent during the 20-year period from 1990 to 2011, from 14 600 hectares to 26 500 hectares, representing an increase of some 540 hectares on average per year, or an increase almost equalling the area of Sha Tin New Town every five years. However, we seem to have got stuck in the doldrums over the past few years.
The shortage of land we are now facing is plain to see: (1) there are more than 220 000 public housing applicants on the Waiting List; (2) many people are living in sub-divided flats, squats or dilapidated conditions; (3) there is a need to rehouse affected residents before redevelopment of old urban areas and old housing estates; (4) we need to build
79 000 public rental housing (PRH) units in the first 5-year period and 100 000 PRH units in the next 5-year period in addition to Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) flats; (5) there is a need to provide land to build 20 000 private residential flats every year in order to stabilise the property market; (6) there is a shortfall of commercial, office and retail spaces; (7) parks/open spaces, residential care homes for the elderly, hospitals, schools, community halls, sports, recreational and religious venues all call for land and (8) while providing these facilities, we also have to provide supporting infrastructure and facilities such as roads, railways, water treatment works, sewage treatment works and power stations and so on.
Let me take the Kai Tak Development Plan and North East New Territories New Development Areas as examples to illustrate the importance of building up a land reserve. The Kai Tak Development Plan began in 1992, and its original planned development area was about 580 hectares with a population capacity of 320 000. However, after rounds of consultations, reclamation was withdrawn from the plan, which resulted in a decrease in the total area and the population capacity to 323 hectares and about 90 000 respectively. While we are reviewing the development density the increase cannot be significant owing to a number of constraints on water supply, electricity supply, sewage, air quality, ventilation and traffic, as well as the need to build sports and commercial facilities in the area. It is not until lately that the first piece of land in Kai Tak was put up for sale for private residential development, and public housing flats will only be completed later this year. These housing supplies can only partly address the needs of population growth over the next decade.
The North East New Territories New Development Areas (NENT NDAs) project was first proposed in 1990. The NENT NDAs will provide about 700 hectares of developable land with a population capacity of 150 000, according to the planning assessment in the Stage Three Public Engagement last year. We are also reviewing their development density, but are faced with the constraints mentioned above. As action is needed without further delay, any increase will not be significant. We estimate that the first batch of housing flats will not be available until 2021-22, which can only partly address the needs of population growth in the second decade.
From the initial proposal to studies being carried out, and from the planning stage to the first intake of residents, it has taken more than 20 years for these two plans to be realised. It is evident that developing new land takes a long time.
Therefore, in order to cope with the uncertainties and time-consuming procedures involved in developing land, we have to adopt a multi-pronged approach to increase land supply so that different land supply options can complement each other and a land reserve can be built up. This serves as risk management on the one hand, and helps us seize unpredictable development opportunities on the other.
Last week I went on an exchange visit to Singapore. It has an abundant land reserve and a number of sites which allow flexible uses on their master plan. I have already explained its scale of reclamation and successful cases in “My Blog” before and I shall not repeat it here. Yet, what Singapore has succeeded in doing is in fact what we achieved in the past. Reclamation is the best way to build up a land reserve because it does not involve land resumption and rehousing, and the reclaimed land can be readily made available in the short, medium and long terms when the need arises. Furthermore, the developable area provided by reclamation is larger in scale for holistic planning, and it is also easier for the Government to monitor the development schedules. However, it is a pity that we have ceased conducting studies on reclamation since 2000. Instead, since 2007, we have transported surplus public fill materials generated by the local construction industry to Taishan, which is 170 kilometres away. This has resulted in providing more than 400 hectares of reclaimed land for Taishan, but not Hong Kong, leaving our shortage of land problem unresolved.
If Hong Kong remains hesitant and fails to expedite the relevant work, leaving the problem of land shortage to continue to hinder our livelihood and development, who will suffer most in the end?
19 May, 2013
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